Debbie Fogel-Monnissen
Interim CEO, Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)
From tariffs to geopolitical shocks, volatility is no longer an exception but the operating environment for global trade.
Volatility has become the new baseline for global supply chains.
Across regions, supply networks are reshaping amid disparate forces. Tariff policies continue evolving, often in different directions at once. Recent adjustments to metals tariffs, for example, have lowered duties in some sectors while expanding in others, creating a trade environment that’s dynamic and difficult to predict and manage.
Geopolitical tensions are also changing how goods move. Conflict in critical transit regions — the Strait of Hormuz, for example — has forced the rerouting of shipments, increased costs and extended delivery timelines across industries. These conflicts also impact the availability of oil, fertiliser and other essentials.
Disruptions don’t happen in isolation; they overlap, creating ripple effects across supply chains. Organisations can no longer avoid or plan around volatility; it’s the environment they operate within.
Data and decision-making
This shift is changing how leaders think about supply chains. Trade decisions that once focused on efficiency must now also account for resilience, security and long-term stability. Supply chain performance is also more closely tied to business performance, shaping growth, cost and customer outcomes.
There are also clear signals within the data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 54% in May 2026, indicating continued expansion even as companies manage rising costs and slower supplier deliveries. That tension reflects an environment where demand remains strong, but pressure across supply networks continues.
Within organisations, supply chain and procurement leaders play a more strategic role. Visibility into supplier risk and market signals is essential as they’re often the first to identify disruption and guide response.
Disruptions don’t happen in isolation; they overlap,
creating ripple effects across supply chains
From resilience to adaptability
For leaders, the focus must continue to shift toward adaptability. That means building supply chains that can sense change, respond quickly and perform under pressure.
Over the next decade, supply chains will increasingly reflect business strategy, national priorities and global alignment. Organisations that succeed won’t avoid disruption entirely. The people, processes and technology will be designed to operate within it.
In today’s global economy, navigating uncertainty isn’t a competitive advantage; it’s the expectation.
